RBA September 2026 Preview: All Four Banks Now Call a Hike on 29 September

The Reserve Bank's next cash rate decision lands on 29 September 2026 — and the picture has shifted fast in the past two weeks. An 8 September survey had 10 of 12 leading economists expecting a hold at 4.35%. Since then, all four major banks have moved to forecasting a hike, and futures markets are now pricing an 86% probability of one — up from 54% at the start of September. Here's the data behind the shift, and what it means for your mortgage.

Where We Stand After August

After three rate hikes in the first half of 2026 — in February, March, and May — the RBA held at 4.35% in both June and August. The August statement was firm: inflation remains too high, a further hike is explicitly on the table, and rate cuts are not coming before mid-2027 at the earliest.

The Board is looking for evidence that inflation is sustainably heading back to the 2–3% target midpoint before it relaxes policy. The data since August has given mixed signals — and that split is showing up directly in market pricing vs. economist forecasts.

The Data Heading Into 29 September

Inflation: easing headline, sticky core

Annual headline CPI fell to 3.5% in July 2026, down from 3.8% in June — the most encouraging headline print of the year. But the trimmed mean, the RBA's preferred underlying measure, remained flat at 3.6% for the third consecutive month. The Board's concern has never been about the headline — it's about whether underlying inflation is genuinely and durably heading lower. With the trimmed mean going sideways, that question isn't answered yet.

The August monthly CPI indicator is due for release in late September — likely days before the meeting. This is the single most important number before 29 September. Any re-acceleration in trimmed mean inflation could trigger a hike. A further easing would cement the hold.

Unemployment: post-COVID high

Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in July 2026, its highest level since the COVID era, up from 4.4% in June. Total employment fell by 15,800 in the month. A softening labour market typically reduces wage pressure, which in turn eases services inflation — one of the stickiest components the RBA is watching. The deterioration in the jobs market is a meaningful argument for the hold camp.

GDP: running below trend

Economic growth remains subdued, weighed down by weak household consumption and the cumulative impact of 2026's rate hikes. The RBA acknowledged this in August, describing the economy as "slowing as expected." Historically, the Board has been reluctant to tighten into a clearly weakening economy — especially when the unemployment rate is rising.

The wildcard: renewed Iran conflict and fuel prices

A fresh escalation in the US-Iran conflict in the days before this meeting has pushed global oil prices back above US$100 a barrel, with reports of tanker attacks disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Australian bowser prices have jumped to an average of around $2.11 a litre for regular unleaded — up sharply from $1.55 in July — a rise compounded by the federal government's temporary fuel excise cut expiring on 2 August without renewal.

This matters directly for 29 September. A sustained fuel price spike feeds into headline inflation quickly and risks flowing into transport and freight costs more broadly. It's already being cited as a reason markets are pricing in a higher chance of a hike than the economist panel — and it's the kind of external shock that could tip a genuinely undecided Board toward acting rather than waiting.

What Economists and Markets Are Saying

The picture has moved fast — and moved one way.

8 September: 10 of 12 economists said hold
An economist panel surveyed in early September had the majority — including forecasters at CommBank, ANZ, UBS and Goldman Sachs — expecting the RBA to hold at 4.35%. Only NAB's Sally Auld and Deutsche Bank's Phil O'Donaghoe were calling a hike at that point, citing the trimmed mean stuck at 3.6%.

By 21 September: all four major banks call a hike
That consensus has since broken down. CommBank and ANZ both brought their calls forward from November to September this week, joining NAB and Westpac. All four majors now expect a 25bp hike to 4.60% on 29 September — see the table below for how their views on November and the first rate cut have shifted too.

Markets: 86% probability of a hike
The ASX RBA Rate Tracker shows just how fast this has moved. Market-implied odds of a hike were 54% on 1 September, spiked to 76% by 2 September, eased back to 72% around 10 September, then climbed steadily again — hitting 86% by 18 September, the latest reading. The move tracks the escalation of the Iran conflict and the surge in fuel prices through September, and it's now firmly aligned with where the bank economists have landed. As Mansour Soltani, Head of Research at OurTop10, put it when the gap first opened: "There is a lot of daylight between what the market is pricing and what the economists are saying, and that does not happen often." That gap has since closed — both sides are now pointing the same way.

What a Hold or Hike Means for Your Repayments

With all four majors and market pricing now aligned on a hike, borrowers should plan for these increases landing within weeks — not treat a hike as an outside chance. And a hike on 29 September doesn't close the door on a second move: ANZ has pencilled in another rise to 4.85% in November, and NAB says a second hike is possible.

When Will Rates Come Down?

Later than it looked even a few weeks ago. First-cut forecasts have pushed back across the board — NAB and CommBank have both moved from May to August 2027, and ANZ now points to November 2027. The RBA's own forecasts show inflation not returning to the target midpoint until mid-2027, and the renewed fuel price shock only adds to the case for caution. That is the base case for cuts to begin — and only if no further shocks push the timeline out further.

Borrowers planning around rate relief in 2026 or early 2027 should update those expectations.

What Should Borrowers Do Now?

Don't wait for the meeting to review your rate. Whether the RBA holds or hikes on 29 September, the gap between what loyal borrowers are paying and what's available in the market is often 0.5%–1.0%. That saving is available today — it doesn't require the RBA to move.

If a hike lands, understand the impact immediately. On a $600,000 loan, a 25bp hike is $99/month — $1,188 per year. With another potential hike in November, two moves would add close to $200/month. Knowing your options now means you can act quickly rather than scrambling after the announcement.

Don't lock in fixed based on hike predictions. Fixed rates are already priced around where lenders expect rates to move. Fixing doesn't protect you from a September hike — and it locks you out of any 2027 cuts. If you're considering fixing, get advice specific to your situation.

The bank forecasts, economist survey results and market-implied probabilities in this article are third-party estimates, not a guaranteed outcome — the RBA Board can and does decide differently from what markets and economists expect.

Sources: Reserve Bank of Australia, Monetary Policy Decision, 11 August 2026; Finder, RBA Cash Rate Survey, September 2026; Elite Agent, RBA September Cash Rate: Economists vs. Markets Split; RBA / ASX RBA Rate Tracker, implied cash rate expectations;Canstar, Interest Rate Forecast & Predictions 2026; ABS, Labour Force Australia, July 2026; ABS, Consumer Price Index Australia, July 2026; IEEFA, Australians Brace for Higher Fuel Prices as US-Iran Conflict Resumes; The Nightly, Australian Fuel Prices Surge Above $2 a Litre, 12 September 2026; Savings.com.au, CBA, ANZ Move Call of Cash Rate Hike to Next Week, 21 September 2026.