RBA November 2026 Preview: Markets Price a Hold, But Two Majors Still Call a Fifth Hike

Three weeks ago, a hike felt like the only outcome on the table. The RBA delivered it on 29 September, lifting the cash rate to 4.60% — the fourth increase of 2026. Now, with the next decision due on 3 November, the picture has flipped: markets have slashed the odds of a fifth hike to around 20%, driven by inflation data that came in softer than feared. But ANZ and Westpac haven't moved off their call for another rise. Here's what's actually splitting the market from the banks, and what it means for your mortgage either way.

Where We Stand After September

The RBA's 29 September hike took the cash rate to 4.60% — the highest level since 2011, and the fourth rise this year. The decision was near-unanimous heading in and the Board followed through, citing a broadening Middle East conflict and energy prices running well above its August forecasts.

All four major banks passed the increase on in full, effective 9 October. That move pushed every major bank's standard variable rate above 6%, officially ending the era of sub-6% rates among the big four:

Note: the repayment table further down uses an indicative rate of 6.75%, rather than any single bank's advertised rate above — that's deliberate. Few existing borrowers are actually on their bank's lowest advertised rate; back-book customers without a recently-negotiated discount commonly sit 30–50+ basis points above it. 6.75% reflects that more typical existing-borrower position after the September hike, not the big four's new front-book reference rates.

The Data That Changed the Picture

The RBA's August monthly CPI indicator, released 30 September, was the first real test of whether September's hike had done enough. The result was mixed — but markets read it as a green light to dial back hike expectations.

Headline inflation rose to 4.0% in August, up from 3.5% in July. On its own, that would look alarming. But it came in slightly below the 4.1% economists had forecast — and more importantly, the trimmed mean, the RBA's preferred underlying measure, held steady at 3.6% for a third consecutive month.

That combination — a headline print that undershot expectations, with a flat trimmed mean — was enough to see the market-implied probability of a November hike fall sharply, from levels close to certainty in early September to around 20% now.

What the Banks Are Saying — and Why They Disagree

This is where it gets interesting. The market has clearly shifted toward "hold." Two of the four major banks haven't.

ANZ and Westpac: still calling a hike to 4.85%
Both banks have kept their November hike call in place, and both have been explicit about why. ANZ's economics team put it plainly: "We'd view such a quarterly number as being a material upside surprise relative to the forecasts in the RBA's August Statement on Monetary Policy. And so we still think another rate hike at the November meeting, taking the cash rate to 4.85%, is more likely than not." Their call hinges on the Q3 trimmed mean coming in above what the RBA itself forecast in August.

Westpac's chief economist has pointed to the same underlying risk from a different angle — energy costs. The bank is predicting another rate increase in a couple of months, unless there's a lasting resolution to the Middle East conflict or a reversal in energy prices. In both cases, the view is that August's data was reassuring, not conclusive — and that the Board's own commentary in September left the door open for exactly this kind of follow-through.

CBA and NAB: expect a hold, but won't rule out a hike
Both banks shifted to a hold call after the August CPI print, judging that the combination of a softer-than-forecast headline and a flat trimmed mean gives the Board enough room to pause. Neither has closed the door on a hike later in the cycle if conditions don't improve.

The outside voices are split too. EY's senior economist warned that the RBA "may need to raise interest rates again before the end of the year if, as we expect, inflation momentum fails to moderate." KPMG's chief economist was more pointed, describing the August data as showing "a stubbornness that requires more drastic policy action." Not everyone agrees the worst is over.

The Swing Factor: Q3 CPI on 28 October

If there's one number that will decide this meeting, it's not the monthly indicator — it's the September quarter CPI, due for release on 28 October at 11:30am AEDT, just six days before the Board sits down.

The quarterly figure matters more than the monthly indicator because it's more comprehensive and historically the number the RBA leans on most heavily for policy decisions. A trimmed mean result that confirms the 3.6% plateau — or better, shows it easing — would hand the "hold" camp exactly the evidence it's been waiting for. A result that shows underlying inflation reaccelerating would put a fifth hike squarely back on the table, and could see ANZ and Westpac's call vindicated in a hurry.

What It Means for Your Mortgage

If the RBA holds on 3 November, nothing changes immediately — but a hold doesn't mean the risk is gone. ANZ and Westpac's call for 4.85% stays live for a future meeting, and the Board's own language in September kept a further hike "if needed" explicitly on the table.

If the RBA hikes to 4.85%, here's the likely impact on a typical variable-rate loan, building on the rate rise that already landed on 9 October:

Two hikes back-to-back (September and a hypothetical November) would add roughly $160–$250 a month to a $500,000–$750,000 loan compared with where rates sat in August — a meaningful jump for household budgets already absorbing four increases this year.

What Should Borrowers Do Now?

Don't wait for 3 November to check your rate. Whether the Board holds or hikes, the gap between what existing borrowers pay and what's available to new customers can be significant — often in the 0.5%–1.0% range. That gap doesn't depend on what the RBA does next.

If you're budgeting for a possible fifth hike, plan now, not after. With ANZ and Westpac still on the record for 4.85%, it's worth stress-testing your budget against that scenario before the decision, not scrambling afterward if it happens.

Keep an eye on 28 October, not just 3 November. The Q3 CPI print is likely to move market pricing more than anything said at the meeting itself. If you're deciding between fixed and variable, that data point — not the RBA decision — is the one to watch first.

This article contains general information only and does not take into account your personal financial situation, needs or objectives. Consider your own circumstances and seek independent advice — including from us — before acting on anything here.

The bank forecasts, economist commentary and market-implied probabilities in this article are third-party estimates, not a guaranteed outcome — the RBA Board can and does decide differently from what markets and economists expect.

Sources: ABC News, RBA Hikes Cash Rate to 4.6% in Fourth Rate Rise of 2026; ABC News, RBA Unlikely to Lift Rates Again in November After Lower-Than-Expected Inflation; The Adviser, Westpac Joins ANZ in Forecasting November Hike; Canstar, CBA Follows ANZ In Predicting November Rate Hike; Canstar, Goodbye Rates Starting With a 5: Westpac, NAB and ANZ Announce Rate Hikes; Broker News, Big Four Banks Pass On RBA Hike in Full, Ending Sub-6% Rates; ABS, Consumer Price Index Australia, August 2026.